Steve Kornacki on NBC News did some dirty work for Democrats Sunday with his report that former President Donald Trump is back from a 5-point lead and is tied with Kamala Harris in the new NBC poll, just weeks before Election Day.
NBC’s Kristen Welker opened the segment with Kornacki explaining the importance of the poll results.
Kristen Welker: “This is a big one.
Steve Kornacki: “Yeah, Kristen, it’s a tie game now weeks before the election. And that shift is what’s catching everyone’s attention. In our last poll, right after the September debate, Harris had opened up a lead over Trump. That advantage has disappeared in our latest numbers.”
The poll found a larger change in voter perceptions of the two candidates. Trump is doing better, and now 43% of voters are positive on him and 51% negative on him. Harris’ rating is also nearly identical to Trump’s, a net loss of any ground she has lost since the September debate.
Kornacki also named a number of major areas where Trump has a clear advantage now such as immigration and inflation. Trump’s lead on inflation, which voters really care about, has reached double digits, and he is also building his lead on immigration, which voters care about more and more.
Harris narrowed her margins on who is the changemaker. “Change is a critical issue for voters, but Harris’ lead has weakened.” Kornacki said.
Kristen Welker remarked on how difficult it is for Harris to become Vice President under an unpopular administration. “That’s not the direction her campaign wants to see at this stage.”
Kornacki correlated the polling to President Biden’s approval ratings in the low 40s. Almost two-thirds of voters say Biden’s policies are hurting more than advancing the cause, and that puts Harris in an odd place within the administration.
The best thing about Trump’s previous policies is that voters see his policies more favorably in retrospect: 44% of respondents believe that Trump’s policies benefitted them, compared with only 31% who say they hurt.
Kornacki contextualized it, showing how vice presidents who were already in the running had fared under favored administrations (George H.W. Bush in 1988 and Al Gore 2000, versus Harris, who’s fighting to keep President Biden with considerably lower approval ratings as her running mate.
For poll results and discussion, see NBC News and Axios.
