November 3, 2024
With less than two days before Americans head to the polls for one of the most closely contested presidential elections in recent history, Republicans appear to be laying the groundwork to question the election outcome, particularly if former President Donald Trump loses. Early lawsuits and polling strategies have raised concerns from Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans, who argue that the GOP is positioning itself to claim that election fraud occurred if Trump falls short in his bid to return to the White House.
Polling in battleground states has shown mixed results, with some Republican-aligned pollsters consistently projecting Trump in the lead, even as other independent and established pollsters show Vice President Kamala Harris with a slight advantage or the two candidates tied. The New York Times/Siena College surveys released this week indicate Trump and Harris running virtually even in seven critical swing states, while GOP-linked polls often show Trump with a slight edge, raising concerns about the potential use of these numbers to discredit the results.
In rallies leading up to Election Day, Trump has maintained that he is “leading big in the polls” and has expressed disbelief that the race remains close. A memo from his pollster, Tony Fabrizio, suggests that Trump’s position is “significantly better” than it was four years ago. This narrative of inevitable victory has fueled speculation that Trump may reject the election outcome if he loses, claiming, as he did in 2020, that the result was manipulated.
Concerns Over GOP Polling Strategies
The influx of polls from Republican-aligned organizations, such as the Trafalgar Group, has led to scrutiny over whether these surveys are part of a larger strategy to build a narrative around a Trump victory. Trafalgar, a polling firm founded by a former Republican consultant, has consistently shown Trump in the lead in swing states like North Carolina, contrasting sharply with a CNN poll showing Harris ahead by one point in the same state.
Polling expert Nate Silver has cast doubt on the recent surge in pro-Trump polling, noting that the “small changes” in numbers do not necessarily indicate a clear trend and are swamped by uncertainty. “Anyone who is confident about this election is someone whose opinion you should discount,” Silver said in an interview with CNBC, urging caution against overconfidence in polling data.
Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg has warned against what he calls a “false narrative” created by conservative-commissioned polls. Rosenberg argues that these polls are intended to shift public perception, making a Trump victory seem inevitable and, if he loses, fueling claims of fraud. “The reason we have to call this out is that Donald Trump needs to go into election day with some set of data showing him winning, so if he loses, he can say we cheated,” Rosenberg told MeidasTouch News.
Legal Maneuvers and Accusations of Fraud
Trump’s team has already filed legal actions in Pennsylvania, where they claim election officials in Bucks County were preventing voters from submitting early mail-in ballots. Although a judge later ordered an extension of early voting in the county, Trump has used the incident to accuse Democrats of “cheating.” This legal approach mirrors Trump’s actions in 2020, when his team filed more than 60 lawsuits challenging the election outcome, all of which were ultimately dismissed in court.
Anti-Trump Republicans, including former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Steele, have also expressed concerns over GOP-backed polling efforts. Steele claims that these polls are often weighted in a way that skews results in Trump’s favor, allowing Trump to contest the election outcome. “They’re gamed on the back end so Maga can make the claim that the election was stolen,” Steele told The New Republic.
Stuart Stevens, an adviser to the Lincoln Project, believes this tactic is aimed at creating chaos and making it difficult for states to certify the results. “These fake polls are a great tool in that because that’s how you lead people to think the race was stolen,” Stevens said.
Betting Platforms and the Role of Social Media
Adding to the perception of a Trump surge, online betting platforms have shown substantial wagers on Trump’s victory, a trend that Trump himself has promoted in recent speeches. The New York Times reported that a handful of accounts linked to a French national were responsible for $28 million in bets on Trump via the Polymarket platform. This surge in betting activity, fueled by high-value wagers, has provided Trump supporters with another data point to suggest that public opinion is in his favor.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk, a vocal Trump supporter, has also shared polling maps on his social media platform X, suggesting Trump’s path to victory. Musk’s amplification of pro-Trump polling data has contributed to an echo chamber of confidence among Trump supporters, who interpret these numbers as a sign of impending victory.
Implications for Election Integrity
As Election Day approaches, the potential for a contested result looms large. Trump’s legal team appears ready to file challenges, and the conservative media’s focus on pro-Trump polls and betting odds has set the stage for widespread claims of fraud should Trump lose. The question of election integrity is at the heart of this debate, with Democrats and some Republicans arguing that attempts to question the results without evidence erode public trust in the electoral system.
“Republicans are clearly strategically putting polling into the information environment to try to create perceptions that Trump is stronger,” said Joshua Dyck, of the University of Massachusetts at Lowell. Critics warn that if Trump ultimately loses, his supporters could interpret his loss as a result of foul play rather than a legitimate outcome. This narrative has raised concerns that the nation could face significant unrest following the election, with Trump’s base already primed to reject any unfavorable result.
Sources:
- New York Times. (2024, October 31). “Republicans Are Setting Up to Challenge Election Results If Trump Loses.”
- CNBC. (2024, October 30). “Nate Silver on the Election: Don’t Trust a Surge Without Questioning the Data.”
- MeidasTouch News. (2024, October 29). “Democrats Call Out Pro-Trump Polls as Attempt to Create a False Narrative.”
- The New Republic. (2024, October 30). “Anti-Trump Republicans Warn of ‘Gamed’ Polling Aimed at Undermining Election Integrity.”
- The Guardian. (2024, November 1). “Bucks County, Pennsylvania, Ordered to Extend Early Voting After Voters Turned Away.”
