November 3, 2024
With Election Day just around the corner, a new series of polls released on Sunday indicate that the 2024 presidential race is razor-thin in seven crucial battleground states. The New York Times/Siena College polls of likely voters reveal a dead heat between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, underscoring the intense competition as both campaigns make final pushes in key states.
According to the polls, Trump and Harris are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump holds a narrow lead in Arizona, polling at 49% to Harris’ 45%. Meanwhile, Harris has slight leads in Nevada (49-46%), Wisconsin (49-47%), North Carolina (48-46%), and Georgia (48-47%).
In total, the polls surveyed 7,879 likely voters across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin between October 24 and November 2. Each state survey had a margin of error of around 3.5%.
As Harris and Trump crisscross these states, the campaigns are focusing on a critical group: late-deciding and persuadable voters. The poll indicates that of the 8% who recently made up their minds, 55% are leaning toward Harris, while 44% favor Trump. Nonetheless, 11% of voters remain undecided, down from 16% a month ago, suggesting that last-minute decisions could sway the election outcome.
The economy remains a top priority among battleground state voters, with 24% listing it as their primary concern. Other major issues include abortion (18%) and immigration (15%).
A Closer Look at Key Senate Races
While the presidential race draws the most attention, Senate races in these battleground states could have significant impacts on the future of Congress. In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Casey holds a 50-45% lead over his Republican challenger David McCormick, down from a nine-point lead in September. In Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s lead over GOP candidate Eric Hovde has narrowed to 50-46%, down from an eight-point advantage last month.
In Michigan, the Senate race for the open seat is similarly tight, with Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin holding a narrow 48-46% lead over former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers.
Shifts in Key Demographics
The polls also reveal shifts in support among certain demographic groups. Harris is reportedly underperforming among younger voters, Black voters, and Latino voters compared to President Biden’s support in 2020. This shift has prompted Harris to double down on reaching these critical voting blocs, holding events and rallies to bolster support.
As both campaigns enter the final hours before Election Day, the tight margins across these states have underscored the stakes in one of the most closely contested elections in recent history.
Sources
- New York Times
